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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 11

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 16-M.Ammendola 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.52 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP