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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 20

Houston Texans 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model