Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 3

(8:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to HOU 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model