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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 69

Denver Broncos 3 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model