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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 20

Houston Texans 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model