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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 20:20 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIN
49.9%
DEN
50.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.049 vs Joshua Dobbs (MIN) -0.126 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

MIN

Akayleb Evans CB Out Calf
Jaren Hall QB Out Concussion
Brian Asamoah LB Questionable Ankle
Alexander Mattison RB Questionable Concussion
Chris Reed G Questionable Foot
Justin Jefferson WR Questionable Hamstring
Nick Mullens QB Questionable Back

DEN

P.J. Locke S Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
DEN 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:31 FG DEN (10:31) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-Z.Allen]. MIN 6 – DEN 3
  • Q2 08:13 FG MIN (8:13) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – DEN 3
  • Q2 04:11 FG DEN (4:11) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 10 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG DEN (:05) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 10 – DEN 9
  • Q3 08:01 TD MIN (8:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – DEN 9
  • Q4 12:44 FG DEN (12:44) 16-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 17 – DEN 12
  • Q4 10:40 FG DEN (10:40) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 17 – DEN 15
  • Q4 03:20 FG MIN (3:20) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 20 – DEN 15
  • Q4 01:09 TD DEN (1:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Hunter]. MIN 20 – DEN 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (10:31) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (6:52) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to MIN 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 4-B.Powell to MIN 35 for 12 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 4-B.Powell to MIN 29 for 4 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (8:13) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (4:11) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 38%

    (1:19) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 72%

    (:05) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to MIN 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 31 for 11 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (12:44) 16-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (10:40) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:25) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-T.Chandler. 32-T.Chandler right end to DEN 38 for 31 yards (37-R.Moss, 27-D.Mathis).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%

    (6:54) 15-J.Dobbs up the middle to DEN 27 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (3:20) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 13 yards (40-I.Pace). Penalty on MIN-40-I.Pace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:43) 15-J.Dobbs up the middle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).