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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 12

Denver Broncos 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP