Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 77

Denver Broncos 9 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(12:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to MIN 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 31 for 11 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model