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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 15 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 45 for 13 yards (40-I.Pace). Penalty on MIN-40-I.Pace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model