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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 1-G.Joseph 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model