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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 34

Denver Broncos 6 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model