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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-T.Chandler. 32-T.Chandler right end to DEN 38 for 31 yards (37-R.Moss, 27-D.Mathis).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model