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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP