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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 9 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model