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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model