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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 10

Denver Broncos 12 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model