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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

HOU
48.7%
CIN
51.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.178 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
CIN 23
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

HOU

Andrew Beck FB Out Ankle
Nico Collins WR Out Calf
Ka'imi Fairbairn K Out Quadricep
Jake Hansen LB Out Hamstring
Brevin Jordan TE Out Foot
Dameon Pierce RB Out Ankle
Henry To'oTo'o LB Out Concussion
Jimmie Ward S Out Hamstring
Steven Nelson CB Questionable Back
Jerry Hughes DE Questionable Back
Robert Woods WR Questionable Foot

CIN

Tee Higgins WR Out Hamstring
Sam Hubbard DE Out Ankle
Josh Tupou DT Doubtful Shoulder
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Thumb
Ja'Marr Chase WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 30
–
CIN 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:48 TD CIN (9:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 16-T.Irwin for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 10:38 TD HOU (10:38) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-N.Dell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 00:15 FG HOU (:15) 16-M.Ammendola 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 10 – CIN 7
  • Q3 09:30 FG HOU (9:30) 16-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 13 – CIN 7
  • Q3 07:12 TD HOU (7:12) 26-D.Singletary right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – CIN 7
  • Q3 03:05 FG CIN (3:05) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. HOU 20 – CIN 10
  • Q3 00:21 TD CIN (:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – CIN 16
  • Q4 12:52 TD HOU (12:52) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 26 – CIN 17
  • Q4 03:22 TD CIN (3:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 27 – CIN 23
  • Q4 01:37 FG CIN (1:37) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. HOU 27 – CIN 27
  • Q4 00:05 FG HOU (:05) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 30 – CIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 61%

    (11:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-T.Hudson to HOU 35 for 3 yards (0-S.Griffin; 4-T.Thomas).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:03) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:53) 10-B.Robbins punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-N.Dell to HOU 18 for 11 yards (25-C.Evans).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (:03) 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 10, touched at CIN 10, RECOVERED by CIN-98-D.Reader at CIN 11.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:43) 10-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-N.Dell. HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:08) 10-B.Robbins punts 54 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-N.Dell to HOU 20 for 7 yards (12-S.Jackson).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 56 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 18 for 6 yards (51-M.Bailey). Penalty on HOU-92-D.Horton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, offsetting, enforced at HOU 12. Penalty on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, offsetting.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (:15) 16-M.Ammendola 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:30) 16-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%

    (3:05) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-43-N.Hewitt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (5:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 8 yards (53-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (1:37) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.