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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model