Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(8:03) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.70 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model