Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 56 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 18 for 6 yards (51-M.Bailey). Penalty on HOU-92-D.Horton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, offsetting, enforced at HOU 12. Penalty on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.79 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model