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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 16-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP