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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 68

Houston Texans 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 29 for 8 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.58 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP