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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 10-B.Robbins punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-N.Dell to HOU 18 for 11 yards (25-C.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model