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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 9

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 10, touched at CIN 10, RECOVERED by CIN-98-D.Reader at CIN 11.

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.24 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model