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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 10-B.Robbins punts 48 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-N.Dell. HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.73 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP