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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 27

Houston Texans 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 16-M.Ammendola 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model