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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 68

Houston Texans 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-43-N.Hewitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model