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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

LA
44.0%
GB
56.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) -0.044 vs Brett Rypien (LA) -0.263 EPA/dropback (LA starting Brett Rypien in place of Matthew Stafford)
  • GB offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 23
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LA

Ernest Jones LB Out Knee
Hunter Long TE Out Hamstring
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Calf
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable right Thumb
Cobie Durant CB Questionable Shoulder
Larrell Murchison DT Questionable Knee
Puka Nacua WR Questionable Knee

GB

Rudy Ford S Questionable Calf
Quay Walker LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 3
–
GB 20

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:22 TD GB (14:22) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 01:47 FG LA (1:47) 8-L.Havrisik 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – GB 7
  • Q3 02:13 FG GB (2:13) 17-A.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. LA 3 – GB 10
  • Q4 09:11 FG GB (9:11) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. LA 3 – GB 13
  • Q4 03:46 TD GB (3:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 88-L.Musgrave for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – GB 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

    (11:34) 42-E.Evans punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at GB 16.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to LA 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 81-A.Trammell pushed ob at LA 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:59) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to GB 38, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 46%

    (11:12) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to LA 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:47) 42-E.Evans punts 61 yards to GB 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-K.Nixon to GB 40 for 15 yards (87-D.Allen).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 81-A.Trammell to LA 20 for 12 yards (45-Er.Wilson). PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

    (1:47) 8-L.Havrisik 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 65%

    (10:50) 42-E.Evans punts 20 yards to GB 16, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 76%

    (6:34) 8-L.Havrisik 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (2:13) 17-A.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 36%

    (15:00) 24-R.Freeman left tackle to GB 47 for no gain (96-C.Wooden, 52-R.Gary).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:44) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to LA 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 81-A.Trammell to LA 27 for 11 yards (35-C.Ballentine; 6-D.Leavitt).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (9:11) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:39) 42-E.Evans punts 65 yards to GB 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-J.Reed to GB 28 for 22 yards (24-R.Freeman; 59-T.Reeder).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 60%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 11-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Kupp (91-P.Smith) [52-R.Gary].

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 22%

    (1:45) 10-J.Love up the middle to GB 49 for 2 yards (4-J.Fuller; 51-Z.VanValkenburg).