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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 11-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep middle to 10-C.Kupp (91-P.Smith) [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.80 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model