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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 24-R.Freeman left tackle to GB 47 for no gain (96-C.Wooden, 52-R.Gary).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model