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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 10-J.Love up the middle to GB 49 for 2 yards (4-J.Fuller; 51-Z.VanValkenburg).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model