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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 42-E.Evans punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at GB 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.32 EP
KICK -2.09 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP