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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 31

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 8-L.Havrisik 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model