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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 42-E.Evans punts 20 yards to GB 16, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP