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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to LA 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model