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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 86

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 42-E.Evans punts 61 yards to GB 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 25-K.Nixon to GB 40 for 15 yards (87-D.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model