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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 17-A.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model