Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- TB offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.163 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.022 EPA/dropback
- TB defense: +0.007 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 8
TB
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:08 FG BUF (8:08) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. TB 0 – BUF 3
- Q2 11:10 TD BUF (11:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – BUF 9
- Q2 07:45 FG TB (7:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – BUF 10
- Q2 06:51 TD TB (6:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – BUF 10
- Q2 02:46 TD BUF (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – BUF 16
- Q3 10:46 TD BUF (10:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – BUF 23
- Q4 02:51 TD TB (2:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – BUF 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 15 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to BUF 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%
(8:08) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 73%
(4:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-S.Lawson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Kincaid (35-J.Dean).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(14:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to TB 47, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to TB 23 for 24 yards (32-J.Hayes).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%
(7:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%
(:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback. Kick through end zone.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 52%
(7:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to BUF 9, impetus ends at BUF 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at BUF 18 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft; 52-K.Britt). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 18.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 25%
(5:03) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TB 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 73%
(2:47) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to BUF 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to 50 for 23 yards (8-S.Dennis). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27. Return credited to BUF 27 (foul assessed from end of kick).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%
(14:12) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to TB 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-41-R.Gilliam.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(13:12) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to BUF 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to BUF 45 for 18 yards (32-J.Hayes). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 43. Return credited to BUF 43 (spot of foul).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 29%
(10:14) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to TB 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-D.Thompkins MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 8.
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 24 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%
(2:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 72% p(FG) 32%
(:31) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
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