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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Thursday 2023-10-26 · 20:15 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TB
23.9%
BUF
76.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.163 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.022 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 18
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TB

Matt Feiler G Out Knee
Kaevon Merriweather S Out Ankle
Vita Vea DT Questionable Groin
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Neck
Baker Mayfield QB Questionable Knee

BUF

Dawson Knox TE Out Wrist
Quintin Morris TE Out Ankle
Baylon Spector LB Out Hamstring
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 18
–
BUF 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:08 FG BUF (8:08) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. TB 0 – BUF 3
  • Q2 11:10 TD BUF (11:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – BUF 9
  • Q2 07:45 FG TB (7:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – BUF 10
  • Q2 06:51 TD TB (6:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – BUF 10
  • Q2 02:46 TD BUF (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – BUF 16
  • Q3 10:46 TD BUF (10:46) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – BUF 23
  • Q4 02:51 TD TB (2:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – BUF 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to BUF 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%

    (8:08) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 73%

    (4:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-S.Lawson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Kincaid (35-J.Dean).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to TB 47, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to TB 23 for 24 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (7:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%

    (:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to BUF 9, impetus ends at BUF 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at BUF 18 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft; 52-K.Britt). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 18.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 25%

    (5:03) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TB 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:47) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to BUF 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to 50 for 23 yards (8-S.Dennis). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27. Return credited to BUF 27 (foul assessed from end of kick).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%

    (14:12) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to TB 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-41-R.Gilliam.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:12) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to BUF 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to BUF 45 for 18 yards (32-J.Hayes). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 43. Return credited to BUF 43 (spot of foul).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 29%

    (10:14) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to TB 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-D.Thompkins MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 8.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 32%

    (:31) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.