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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 8-S.Martin punts 43 yards to TB 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-41-R.Gilliam.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model