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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-S.Lawson), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.63 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP