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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to TB 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 83-D.Thompkins MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model