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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model