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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 88

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to BUF 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to 50 for 23 yards (8-S.Dennis). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27. Return credited to BUF 27 (foul assessed from end of kick).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.12 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP