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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to BUF 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to BUF 45 for 18 yards (32-J.Hayes). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 43. Return credited to BUF 43 (spot of foul).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.23 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model