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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TB 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP