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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

What Actually Happened

(:31) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP