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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP