Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(12:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to BUF 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.90 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model