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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 09:30 Tottenham Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

BAL
54.0%
TEN
46.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • TEN offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL crossing 5 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 22
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BAL

Odafe Oweh LB Out Ankle
Keaton Mitchell RB Questionable Shoulder

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Out Hamstring
Elijah Molden CB Out Hamstring
Aaron Brewer C Questionable Neck
Teair Tart DT Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 24
–
TEN 16

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:30 FG BAL (10:30) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 05:38 FG TEN (5:38) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. BAL 3 – TEN 3
  • Q1 00:07 FG BAL (:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 10:16 FG BAL (10:16) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9 – TEN 3
  • Q2 03:36 TD BAL (3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 15 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG BAL (:01) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 18 – TEN 3
  • Q3 09:27 FG TEN (9:27) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. BAL 18 – TEN 6
  • Q3 08:32 TD TEN (8:32) 22-D.Henry left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 18 – TEN 12
  • Q4 12:52 FG BAL (12:52) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 21 – TEN 13
  • Q4 04:19 FG BAL (4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 24 – TEN 13
  • Q4 00:41 FG TEN (:41) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. BAL 24 – TEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (10:30) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (5:38) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at TEN 17 for 70 yards (4-R.Stonehouse).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (10:16) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:48) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 20 for 7 yards (39-M.Jackson).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 41%

    (:12) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to TEN 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 11, RECOVERED by BAL-53-D.Phillips at TEN 11.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 32 for 14 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:06) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-K.Philips to TEN 24 for 8 yards (26-G.Stone; 53-D.Phillips). PENALTY on TEN-28-S.Carter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (9:27) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:59) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to TEN 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-K.Philips to TEN 31 for 11 yards (13-D.Duvernay, 53-D.Phillips). Penalty on TEN-14-C.Dowell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (12:52) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.