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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP